Monday, January 16, 2012

The Unresolved Future

Long-time readers know I am given to some measure of political-social-economic analysis of the regions we visit (see Cambodia's Killing Fields or all of Puerto Rico if you're in doubt). In that regard, India should be the Holy Grail for one such disposed: history, religion, culture, politics, policy, economics, traffic violations--it's a cornucopia of confusion ripe for some snarky, if not heartfelt, commentary.

I cannot do it. India's challenges, from castes to corruption, have already been documented in far grander libraries than I will ever engender; likewise, any suggestion at solutions or directives can only be regarded as absurd and insulting. Far better and wiser people than me have tried, and here the country is. If India were easy, it would have been done by now.

Rather, I believe this photo encapsulates everything I have come to understand about the place.

In India, there are switches that make things happen--turning on lights or air conditioners or trains or infrastructure development or IT industries. Then there are switches that control the switches that make things happen. There are other switches, too, that control the switches that control the switches that make things happen. I should also mention that none of the switches are labeled, though everyone is invited to plug in (see bottom left for example of the potential peril in this). Thus little gets done (though it is often remarkable when it does) while everyone has a job. Or at least the 7% who are formally employed.

You read that right: 93% of the labor force makes their living in the informal economy, whether that be driving rickshaws or operating a street food cart or selling giant, phallic balloons outside Mumbai's India Gate. Attempts have been made to engage the vast workforce, but there is a singular stumbling block: once you hire someone in India, public or private, it is virtually impossible to fire them. Multiply that formula with the ever-shifting political-caste allegiances and exponentiate by corruption and it's clear that a meritocracy is not in the cards. Thus, the ideal solution for the majority of the population is to bribe their way into a government position, get paid for never showing up because you can't be fired, and spend the rest of your days fleecing Westerners with your on-the-side transport or souvenir business.

This is no way to run a country. And yet, it's difficult to ignore the momentum of 1.2 billion people. When it happens, it goes down big.

All of this is academic, of course, in day-to-day experience. From open sewers to un/scheduled blackouts to barely passable roads to cold showers to non-existent cellular networks to bureaucratic airport security to the oh-so-holy cows consigned to eat burning trash next to a cesspool of human waste, there is one question that persists: where is the goddamn infrastructure?

Seriously. How do you maintain, much less grow, a country of 1.2 billion, when there's no infrastructure to speak of, and all attempts at creating one have been compromised by the process? It is estimated, for example, that 60-70% of funds allocated for development are siphoned off by the bureaucracy.

Despite the optimism I expressed on my first trip here, India is not where it's at. India is not a superpower, nor do I think it will ever be. It will persist as a colorful, colonial backwater, while continuing to set the bar for poverty, illiteracy, corruption, disease, discrimination and malfeasance. It is expected to be the world's most populous nation by 2030, and in that regard it's only going to get worse: the government has proved it is incapable of such an endeavor, and the market has degenerated to a laissez-faire libertarian ideal that makes nearly everyone poorer, sicker, and less likely to succeed.

While foreign investment has been flowing in--mostly as a hedge against the growing power of China--returns have been small, or even negative, for the reasons cited above. Still, success stories can be found: the Delhi metro, the improved literacy rates and reduced number of childhood marriages, particularly in the south, the pollution reduction programs. But these examples are scarce, and generally the result of the bravery of one or a few people with the courage to challenge the system. Alone they won't be enough to change the direction of the country, but just maybe they'll inspire a few more of those 1.2 billion to chart a new course. I hope they do.

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